In order to analyze the surface deformation of the working face underground river in 1930 Mine of Xinjiang Coking Coal Group, the probabilistic integral method was used in this paper. According to the calculation model of probability integral method and the principle of parameter selection, the predicted parameters of working face after mining were determined. Data processing of the predicted results showed that after mining, a certain degree of subsidence basin occurs above the surface after fully mining, with the maximum subsidence of 5.5 m. Rainwater accumulates in the surface subsidence basin during rainy season, with a certain impact on mine water prevention and control work, and should be highly valued. In the tension and compression regions, the compression regions makes the surface soil more dense and prevent the surface water from penetrating downward. The stretching area causes surface cracks and extends to a certain depth, increasing the downward seepage of surface water and Quaternary aquifer, forming a hydraulic channel with the water conducting fracture zone, the maximum subsidence value is 5 400 mm, the maximum inclination value 51 mm/m, the maximum curvature value 0.6 ×10-3/m, and the maximum horizontal deformation value 19 mm/m.