In order to grasp the change law of underground water surges of the Zhengyi Mine, according to the hydrogeological conditions of the No. 3 coal seam, through field measurements to get the surface subsidence characteristics, numerical calculations was used to determine the height of the development of the face water-conducting fissure zone, through the sudden water coefficient method to analyze the risk of bottom plate water surges, regression analysis was adopted to predict the mine water surges. The results showed that the main water source for mine surges was the overlying sandstone fissure aquifer, the top plate was weakly water-rich, surface water had no influence on mine surges, and the bottom plate pressurized water had no risk of surges, and the average mine surge water will be 480.8 m3/h after 5 a, without possible large-scale mine water surge.