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| Permeability risk analysis of coal mine based on Bow-Tie model and unascertained measure theory |
| Hou Wei, Ma Runze, Lin Qian, Bi Haoyuan |
| School of Mining and Surveying and Mapping Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056000, China |
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Abstract In order to overcome the uncertainty of the safety evaluation factors of coal mine flooding accidents and the problem of fuzzy weight index assignment, the Bow-Tie model analysis method is used to establish the Bow-Tie evaluation model of coal mine flooding accidents through the analysis and research of four aspects of people, things, environment and management in coal mine. The influence factors of 12 flooding accidents are used as the evaluation indexes of risk assessment of coal mine flooding accidents. Through the analytic hierarchy process, the weight of the index is assigned, and finally the risk assessment level of the coal mine flooding accident is determined by the unascertained measurement method. Through the example evaluation and analysis of a mine, the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation of the coal mine. It can be seen that the rationality and applicability of the method can provide some guidance for the risk assessment of coal mine flooding accidents.
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