Based on complex factors affecting Wellbore fracture, a variety of wellbore stability evaluation.In this paper was made. Dongtan Mine was set as a example to analyze a variety of shaft stability evaluation methods according to numbers of complex factors that leading to shaft fracture. Based on analysis, Dongtan mine’s rupture time range was reasonably predicted,  so as to avoid its safety threaten and economic losses. As well, it can be a viable reference to prevent shaft fracture.