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Abstract For the mining depth increasing, time span, hydrogeological conditions change, the old empty water and surge (sudden) water and other uncertain factors make the mine water surge randomness enhanced, the water surge prediction accuracy reduced, the use of metabolic gray system model GM (1,1) prediction of mine water surge method was proposed. To the actual observed surge data constantly metabolism, the new observed surge data at the same time was supplemented, timely removal of the old data has not reflected the characteristics of mine surge, modeling of future mine surge prediction. Handan Niu'erzhuang Mine from 2010 to 2017 the actual observed mine surge data, the establishment of gray system model; remove the actual observed surge data in 2010, the actual observed surge data in 2018 was put, with the establishment of metabolic gray system model; based on MATLAB software programming to predict the 2019 surge water, metabolic model prediction accuracy was 0.99, the old data model 0.92, metabolic model accuracy was high, can be predicted for mine water surge.
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