In order to evaluate the risk of water breakout in the floor of the ash water-bearing layer of No. 4-1 coal seam in Zhengli Coal Industry, RAPA-2D numerical simulation software was used to analyze the depth of damage to the bottom plate during coal seam recovery, and it was concluded that the depth of damage to the bottom plate after coal seam recovery ranged from 18 to 26 m. The geological drilling data and numerical simulation results in the mining field were integrated, and the application of "five graphs” showed that during the mining of No. 4-1 coal seam, most of the bottom ash aquifer in the was in a safe zone, with only two dangerous areas in the north and northeast of the mining field.