In order to study the shallow buried thick coal seam fully mechanized caving mining ground deformation, numerical simulation of fully mechanized caving face of was conducted to predict surface subsidence, the surface of Majialiang Mine 14104 working face tracking station data was observed, the measured values were compared with numerical simulation. The results show that the numerical simulation can better express qualitative analysis of goaf surface subsidence overall situation, also obtain the thickness of coal seam mining settlement, mining influence scope has nothing to do with surface subsidence, but exert influence on the surface subsidence value and intensity.